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The true numbers of Covid-19 deaths is continually questioned from both sides of the lockdown debate, with claims of rampant under and over reporting. Those who see governments’ reactions to the pandemic as exaggerated tend to claim that anyone dying with Covid-like symptoms is logged as a victim of the virus even in the absence of a positive test result and despite the severity of co-morbidities. They often go further and claim that hospitals are incentivized to keep Covid numbers high, due to the increased compensation they receive for coronavirus…read more

Today I’m taking a look at why the United States Covid-19 death curve is following neither the same trajectory as most European countries, nor that of most South American countries. It seems to have the same initial peak as Italy, but then a post-peak surge that matches Brazil: So, what’s going on? Well, first it’s worth understanding why Italy and Brazil are on such different journeys. The figure below shows the 4 classic curves for Temperate and Tropical climates in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Italy obviously has a Northern…read more

It’s been more than 3 months since Update 19, and your experience over that time will depend on where you live. At the risk of generalizing, if you are in a relatively small European country with a strong central government that shut-down effectively then it’s likely that high infection rates were limited to one or two initial areas (Lombardy, Catalonia, Greater London), so you will have seen daily case numbers fall by >95% and stay low for several months : Whereas if you live in a large country with a…read more