orchard.it

OK, three short topics today. First, an update on the ‘delay’ topic from Update 4 in which I offset the UK, US, and German curves in relation to the Italian timeline. I have continued the plot and it now looks like Germany and the US are accelerating faster than Italy did. The UK remains aligned with Italy’s trajectory. A steeper curve means faster transmission, or more realistic numbers due to better testing. Given the fact that the US is still testing per capita at only 2.5% the rate of Italy,…read more

As the days and weeks pass, the number of people who have recovered from the virus will become significant. Today in Italy, that number is 2,749 : 56% of all closed cases, but this will normalize out to a number greater that 95% as seen in China : Il Post explains that there are three levels of recovery defined by the Italian Consiglio Superiore di Sanità : 1. Clinically recovered : when a patient no longer exhibits symptoms of the virus (fever, sore throat, difficulty breathing, etc). It’s possible that…read more

For anyone still wondering if Italy is a special case, underprepared, slow to respond, or just unlucky, I have two graphs for you that I prepared using data from here. The first chart shows the cumulative daily totals in the countries where family and friends live. It appears to show 4 countries experiencing apparently starkly different epidemics : In the second chart I offset each curve by the number of days of delay between the explosion in Italy and the corresponding uptick in each country. Gone are the differences. It…read more

Apologies for the change in tone, but I felt compelled to write something regarding the science driving the response to the virus in the UK, which is different to the way the rest of the world is handling it.Like China, Italy saw an explosion of cases in a concentrated area of the country which quickly overwhelmed hospitals.  Both countries ring-fenced those busy towns in order to avoid the uncontrolled spread of the disease.  The level of China’s military crackdown allowed them to stop there, whereas Italy’s democratic government had not…read more

Only 4 days have passed since the last mail, but the situation has unfolded rapidly : – Monday morning, all sport facilities (ski resorts) were closed, and all public gatherings of 2 or more people were banned. – Monday afternoon, the 11 red zones were extended to the whole country – Wednesday, all shops, restaurants and bars were shut down All 60 million people are now confined to their homes.  Any travel must be documented and police are performing regular spot checks.Some companies have asked their employees to consider this…read more

This is the first of a series of mails that I started sending out to friends and family when it became apparent that the UK and US media were not always being fully transparent, politicians in those countries were, well, being politicians, and the few days or weeks of grace those countries had been granted were not being used to protect the public. The Covid-19 coronavirus is similar to the flu in the way it transmits and the symptoms it provokes, with the following differences :1. Flu has a shorter…read more